Securing Australia's Strategic Independence in the Post-AUKUS Era

Executive Summary

The 2016 Defence White Paper outlined a strategic path built on enduring alliances, particularly with the United States, and large-scale capability investments intended to safeguard Australia's sovereignty. However, since that time, Australia's strategic circumstances have changed drastically. The 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU) and the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR) reflect a recognition that the 2016 assumptions no longer hold. The idea of a ten-year warning time for conflict has been discarded, and the strategic environment is now described as the most dangerous since the Second World War.

Despite these acknowledgements, successive policy documents have failed to address the core contradiction at the heart of our defence posture: Australia is becoming increasingly reliant on foreign-controlled military platforms while claiming to pursue sovereign capability. This paper critiques that contradiction through the lens of the AUKUS submarine program, detailing the risks of strategic dependency, operational vulnerability, and political instability in the alliance architecture.

Equally concerning is the widespread governance failure exposed throughout the submarine procurement process and broader defence planning. AUKUS has passed multiple Senate inquiries with little to no scrutiny of its disabling risks, long-term strategic implications, or loss of sovereign industrial capability. The abrupt shift from the French submarine contract to the AUKUS pact was rushed, opaque, and poorly justified — and no government body, department, or parliamentary process has adequately addressed these systemic issues. This represents a profound breakdown in transparency, accountability, and responsible governance at every level: policy, procurement, and legislative oversight.

We argue that without full operational control, technology sovereignty, and supply chain resilience, Australia's posture is not one of strategic denial but of strategic submission. Without reforming governance structures and holding decision-makers accountable, any claims of sovereign defence capability remain hollow.

The path forward must involve a decisive break from imported dependence and a shift toward regional leadership, industrial self-reliance, and a reformed, transparent defence governance model that puts Australia’s national interest first.