Why Australia Faces a 3.3 Million Home Deficit by 2029 — And Who’s Responsible
Executive Summary
Australia is heading for a housing cliff. By 2029, we will be short more than 3.3 million homes — a catastrophic failure that will leave tens of thousands of families in tents.
This isn’t just bad policy. This is the failure of political will. Successive governments have ignored warnings, inflated demand through vote-chasing handouts, and failed to deliver supply. As a result, a generation has been priced out of the future.
Over 1 million Australians aged 18–45 still live at home — not by choice, but because home ownership has become unreachable.
Planning bottlenecks and infrastructure delays add 18 months to 3 years to housing delivery.
Entry-level homes in Sydney could reach $2 million by 2029, fueled by election-cycle demand sweeteners.
Australia’s housing crisis is not just ongoing — it’s accelerating. And the federal government’s headline-grabbing commitment to 1.2 million homes by 2029 won’t fix it. At best, it slows the bleeding. At worst, it’s a distraction.
We need more than promises. We need a minority government prepared to legislate beyond its donors and disrupt the status quo.
Part 1 — The Housing Tracker (Public Edition)
This version is freely available and designed to inform the public of the urgent shortfall, track the data, and activate support.
1. The Real Shortfall: 3.3 Million Homes by 2029
Benchmarking Australia against global standards reveals the depth of the crisis:
Australia is already 1.8 million homes short based on per-capita dwelling benchmarks.
Population growth adds demand for another 1.5 million homes.
By 2029, we’ll be short 3.3 million homes unless delivery is radically accelerated.
That means building 667,000 homes/year — not 240,000 — to close the gap.
2. The Government’s 1.2 Million Home Promise: A Dangerous Illusion
The federal government has pledged to build 1.2 million homes over seven years, backed by a $32 billion headline commitment.
But the maths tells a different story:
$32 billion ÷ 1.2 million = $27,000 per home.
That figure doesn’t cover land acquisition, approvals, infrastructure, or a concrete slab — let alone a finished home.
It’s not a plan. It’s a press release.
And even if all 1.2 million homes were built on time, it wouldn’t meet projected demand — let alone address the existing 1.8 million home shortfall.
This is not a solution. It’s a political decoy.
Australia needs to deliver over 667,000 homes per year to recover — not 171,000.
Until we confront the real numbers, the crisis will only deepen.
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3. Scoreboard Snapshot
Housing Accountability Scoreboard – Snapshot 2024
Year Annual Target Homes Delivered Shortfall Cumulative Gap
2024 240,000 198,000 -42,000 -42,000
2025 240,000 ( projected) TBD TBD TBD
This scoreboard is updated quarterly to track promises vs. delivery. TBD To be delivered
4. Locked-Out Generation
1M+ young Australians living at home
Entry-level homes in Sydney projected to hit $2M
Policy sweeteners drive demand — and prices — higher
5. What You Can Do
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We are not just short on homes. We are short on truth.
Let’s get real homes built — not just headlines.