Ukraine was promised protection. It got invasion. Australia has been assigned a role. But not a say.
Disclosure
I write this not just as a first-generation Australian—but as the son of two displaced Ukrainians.
Many Ukrainians lay in front of Allied tanks, begging not to be sent back to a Ukraine “gifted” to Stalin after World War II; displaced by Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt, without Ukraine’s participation. Does any of this sound like current news?
Andrew (Andrij) Dyhin
Executive Summary
Australia is repeating Ukraine’s fatal mistake; placing its national survival in the hands of distant allies with no enforceable obligations. While Ukraine was disarmed and promised peace, it was eventually invaded, isolated, and drained. Australia, meanwhile, has become militarily subservient under the AUKUS pact, with U.S. senators openly referring to our submarines as American military assets. This paper traces the historical betrayals of Ukraine, the language of U.S. officials regarding Australia, and the dangerously hollow nature of so-called ‘rules-based’ security assurances. Unless Australia reclaims strategic sovereignty now, we are simply next in line for abandonment.
This is not about abandoning allies. It’s about demanding respect. If we are not treated as equals, then we owe no allegiance.
Introduction: Ukraine Is the Warning
It begins with a handshake. Then a signature. A promise. A 'rules-based order' and an assurance that great powers will come to your aid; if ever needed.
Ukraine believed those promises. It disarmed, aligned, and waited for protection that never came. Now it stands in ruins; ts sovereignty bartered, its security extinguished, and its allies discussing not how to defend it, but how to manage its mineral resources.
That is not just a tragedy. It is a template. And if Australia continues down this same path of blind alignment and strategic dependency, it is not just Ukraine's warning we face; it is Ukraine’s fate.
1. Ukraine: Betrayal in Three Acts
Act I – 1945
At the end of World War II, Churchill and Roosevelt handed Ukraine and the Baltic states to Stalin at Yalta. Not freedom. Not liberation. A transaction. Ukraine was never at the table. It was a pawn moved across it.
Act II – 1994
Ukraine held the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. Under pressure from the U.S., U.K., and Russia, it signed the Budapest Memorandum; disarming in exchange for 'assurances' of security and sovereignty. Not guarantees. Not NATO protection. Just words.
When Russia invaded in 2014, and again in 2022, those words failed. The West delayed. Then debated. Then moved on. The missiles and drones came faster than the aid.
Act III – 2025
Today, Ukraine is bleeding and being bartered; again. It is asked to surrender more: to slow its resistance, to trade its resources, to compromise on its borders. Not in exchange for victory; but for patience, logistics, and survival.
And no one speaks of restoring its nuclear protection. Because the betrayal is now routine. And the abandonment is almost complete.
2. Australia: Subservient, Not Sovereign
Australia now walks the same tightrope; except we’re looking up at a falling nation and pretending we’re safe.
When Australia joined the AUKUS pact, the language from Washington was revealing:
- Senator Roger Wicker called our submarines a contribution to “accelerate U.S. attack submarine production.”
- Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell described them as useful in “cross-strait scenarios”; i.e., Taiwan.
- Senator Tim Kaine said AUKUS was about “countering China,” not defending Australia.
Not one reference to Australian sovereignty. Not one assurance of Australian command. Not one mention of mutual defence.
This wasn’t alliance. It was annexation of capacity.
3. The Pattern: Broken Promises, Real Consequences
- Ukraine gave up its deterrent. The West gave it press releases.
- Australia gives up strategic independence. The U.S. gives us talking points.
- Ukraine was promised support; until support became inconvenient.
- Australia is promised protection; until protection becomes optional.
And when that moment comes; when we ask for real help; what will be the cost?
Will America ask for:
- Western Australia's critical minerals?
- Long-term nuclear basing rights?
- Total alignment in a war not of our choosing?
Just look at Ukraine. It gave everything. And now, it’s still told it owes more.
Conclusion
Look at the historical facts.
- Ukraine was disarmed, then discarded.
- U.S. senators describe Australian submarines as American assets.
- A U.S. president strikes Iran while ignoring his own intelligence community.
- That same president has weaponised tariffs, alliances, and global diplomacy at will.
There is no “rules-based order.” There is only presidential preference. Australia’s security is not guaranteed by any treaty. It’s held hostage to the political winds in Washington.
This is not about abandoning allies. It’s about demanding respect. If we are not treated as equals, then we owe no allegiance.
CHATO International Pty Ltd is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.